Research
We publish how our own indicator has behaved — including when the answer is unflattering.
Sentiment scores and the price moves that followed
Historical, exploratory results
An exploratory study of OG sentiment scores and subsequent price returns. It describes how archived scores and later price moves lined up over one historical period. It does not establish predictive accuracy, and it does not validate how sentiment is measured today.
Each archived score is matched to the opening price of the first trading session after it was recorded — a score recorded before the 9:30 a.m. ET open uses that day's open. The move runs to the close of the first trading session on or after 7 or 30 calendar days later (within 5 days). 7 days is the primary horizon; 30 days is secondary.
Read this before the numbers
- This is a small sample from one market regime. Archived snapshots span 2026-02-19 to 2026-10-27: 168 snapshots, mapped to 162 starting sessions, in a single stretch of one market cycle. Nothing here says how the score behaves in a different market.
- Observations overlap. Neighbouring starting sessions share most of their window, and names in the same sector move together, so neither the ticker-session count nor the starting-session count is a count of independent observations. Both are reported as what they are — counts — and how much independent information they carry is not something these figures establish.
- The score itself changed over this period. These snapshots span 6 recorded methodology versions, so results are grouped by version — one combined number would describe no single version of the score. The newest version has the least history behind it, simply because it is newest.
- Band relationships differ across these historical samples. Methodology versions and calendar periods changed together, so this analysis cannot separate the effect of a methodology change from the effect of market conditions during that period. It reports what each sample shows, and attributes the differences to nothing.
- The rank correlation measures ordering only. It shows whether higher scores tended to go with higher or lower later moves. A value near zero does not show there is no relationship, and no value here is a forecast.
- This is not a strategy backtest. No transaction costs, no position sizing, no tradeable claim — descriptive statistics about an indicator, nothing more.
- Not investment advice. The OG Score is an educational sentiment lens. Past alignment, weak or strong, doesn't predict future alignment.
Methodology v1.5.0
2026-10-23 to 2026-10-28 · 4 starting sessionsPrimary horizon: 7 calendar days
no completed windows yet- 284 observations not yet complete — the window ends after the analysis cutoff of 2026-10-27
Rank correlation: no starting session has a completed window yet.
95% interval by block length — sensitivity, no length preferred
- 12-day blocksno completed windows
- 18-day blocksno completed windows
- 24-day blocksno completed windows
- Bearish (< −30)no completed windows yet
- Leaning bearish (−30 to −11)no completed windows yet
- Neutral (−10 to +10)no completed windows yet
- Leaning bullish (+11 to +30)no completed windows yet
- Bullish (> +30)no completed windows yet
| Score band at snapshot | Median move | Middle 50% of outcomes | Ticker-sessions | Starting sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish (< −30) | no completed windows yet | |||
| Leaning bearish (−30 to −11) | no completed windows yet | |||
| Neutral (−10 to +10) | no completed windows yet | |||
| Leaning bullish (+11 to +30) | no completed windows yet | |||
| Bullish (> +30) | no completed windows yet | |||
Secondary horizon: 30 calendar days
no completed windows yet- 284 observations not yet complete — the window ends after the analysis cutoff of 2026-10-27
Rank correlation: no starting session has a completed window yet.
95% interval by block length — sensitivity, no length preferred
- 35-day blocksno completed windows
- 45-day blocksno completed windows
- 60-day blocksno completed windows
- Bearish (< −30)no completed windows yet
- Leaning bearish (−30 to −11)no completed windows yet
- Neutral (−10 to +10)no completed windows yet
- Leaning bullish (+11 to +30)no completed windows yet
- Bullish (> +30)no completed windows yet
| Score band at snapshot | Median move | Middle 50% of outcomes | Ticker-sessions | Starting sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish (< −30) | no completed windows yet | |||
| Leaning bearish (−30 to −11) | no completed windows yet | |||
| Neutral (−10 to +10) | no completed windows yet | |||
| Leaning bullish (+11 to +30) | no completed windows yet | |||
| Bullish (> +30) | no completed windows yet | |||
Methodology v1.4.1
2026-09-23 to 2026-10-22 · 22 starting sessionsPrimary horizon: 7 calendar days
20 starting sessions with completed windows · 1380 ticker-session observations- 138 observations not yet complete — the window ends after the analysis cutoff of 2026-10-27
Mean rank correlation between score and later move: +0.29 (median +0.33) across 20 starting sessions.
95% interval by block length — sensitivity, no length preferred
- 12-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 36 calendar days of starting sessions, has 28
- 18-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 54 calendar days of starting sessions, has 28
- 24-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 72 calendar days of starting sessions, has 28
- Bearish (< −30)-10.2%middle 50%: -16.5% to -4.0%247 ticker-sessions · 19 starting sessions
- Leaning bearish (−30 to −11)-8.1%middle 50%: -14.9% to -2.9%319 ticker-sessions · 20 starting sessions
- Neutral (−10 to +10)-7.0%middle 50%: -13.0% to -0.9%378 ticker-sessions · 20 starting sessions
- Leaning bullish (+11 to +30)-3.2%middle 50%: -11.6% to +0.2%299 ticker-sessions · 19 starting sessions
- Bullish (> +30)-4.8%middle 50%: -12.4% to +0.2%137 ticker-sessions · 19 starting sessions
| Score band at snapshot | Median move | Middle 50% of outcomes | Ticker-sessions | Starting sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish (< −30) | -10.2% | -16.5% to -4.0% | 247 | 19 |
| Leaning bearish (−30 to −11) | -8.1% | -14.9% to -2.9% | 319 | 20 |
| Neutral (−10 to +10) | -7.0% | -13.0% to -0.9% | 378 | 20 |
| Leaning bullish (+11 to +30) | -3.2% | -11.6% to +0.2% | 299 | 19 |
| Bullish (> +30) | -4.8% | -12.4% to +0.2% | 137 | 19 |
Secondary horizon: 30 calendar days
3 starting sessions with completed windows · 207 ticker-session observations- 1311 observations not yet complete — the window ends after the analysis cutoff of 2026-10-27
Mean rank correlation between score and later move: +0.06 (median +0.14) across 3 starting sessions.
95% interval by block length — sensitivity, no length preferred
- 35-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 105 calendar days of starting sessions, has 3
- 45-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 135 calendar days of starting sessions, has 3
- 60-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 180 calendar days of starting sessions, has 3
- Bearish (< −30)not shown7 ticker-session observations across 2 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10
- Leaning bearish (−30 to −11)not shown30 ticker-session observations across 3 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10
- Neutral (−10 to +10)not shown72 ticker-session observations across 3 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10
- Leaning bullish (+11 to +30)not shown53 ticker-session observations across 3 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10
- Bullish (> +30)not shown45 ticker-session observations across 3 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10
| Score band at snapshot | Median move | Middle 50% of outcomes | Ticker-sessions | Starting sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish (< −30) | 7 ticker-session observations across 2 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10 | |||
| Leaning bearish (−30 to −11) | 30 ticker-session observations across 3 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10 | |||
| Neutral (−10 to +10) | 72 ticker-session observations across 3 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10 | |||
| Leaning bullish (+11 to +30) | 53 ticker-session observations across 3 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10 | |||
| Bullish (> +30) | 45 ticker-session observations across 3 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10 | |||
Methodology v1.4.0
2026-07-17 to 2026-09-22 · 47 starting sessionsPrimary horizon: 7 calendar days
47 starting sessions with completed windows · 3225 ticker-session observationsMean rank correlation between score and later move: −0.11 (median −0.11) across 47 starting sessions.
95% interval by block length — sensitivity, no length preferred
- 12-day blocks−0.23 to +0.05 (includes zero)
- 18-day blocks−0.23 to +0.06 (includes zero)
- 24-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 72 calendar days of starting sessions, has 68
- Bearish (< −30)+3.0%middle 50%: -2.8% to +11.4%410 ticker-sessions · 46 starting sessions
- Leaning bearish (−30 to −11)+3.3%middle 50%: -3.0% to +12.8%615 ticker-sessions · 46 starting sessions
- Neutral (−10 to +10)+1.5%middle 50%: -3.6% to +8.4%801 ticker-sessions · 47 starting sessions
- Leaning bullish (+11 to +30)+0.2%middle 50%: -4.6% to +5.4%771 ticker-sessions · 47 starting sessions
- Bullish (> +30)-3.2%middle 50%: -10.6% to +2.2%628 ticker-sessions · 44 starting sessions
| Score band at snapshot | Median move | Middle 50% of outcomes | Ticker-sessions | Starting sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish (< −30) | +3.0% | -2.8% to +11.4% | 410 | 46 |
| Leaning bearish (−30 to −11) | +3.3% | -3.0% to +12.8% | 615 | 46 |
| Neutral (−10 to +10) | +1.5% | -3.6% to +8.4% | 801 | 47 |
| Leaning bullish (+11 to +30) | +0.2% | -4.6% to +5.4% | 771 | 47 |
| Bullish (> +30) | -3.2% | -10.6% to +2.2% | 628 | 44 |
Secondary horizon: 30 calendar days
47 starting sessions with completed windows · 3225 ticker-session observationsMean rank correlation between score and later move: −0.15 (median −0.20) across 47 starting sessions.
95% interval by block length — sensitivity, no length preferred
- 35-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 105 calendar days of starting sessions, has 68
- 45-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 135 calendar days of starting sessions, has 68
- 60-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 180 calendar days of starting sessions, has 68
- Bearish (< −30)+5.6%middle 50%: -8.1% to +21.1%410 ticker-sessions · 46 starting sessions
- Leaning bearish (−30 to −11)+5.8%middle 50%: -7.2% to +20.3%615 ticker-sessions · 46 starting sessions
- Neutral (−10 to +10)+4.7%middle 50%: -4.9% to +16.8%801 ticker-sessions · 47 starting sessions
- Leaning bullish (+11 to +30)+1.8%middle 50%: -7.0% to +9.3%771 ticker-sessions · 47 starting sessions
- Bullish (> +30)-4.2%middle 50%: -18.8% to +4.1%628 ticker-sessions · 44 starting sessions
| Score band at snapshot | Median move | Middle 50% of outcomes | Ticker-sessions | Starting sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish (< −30) | +5.6% | -8.1% to +21.1% | 410 | 46 |
| Leaning bearish (−30 to −11) | +5.8% | -7.2% to +20.3% | 615 | 46 |
| Neutral (−10 to +10) | +4.7% | -4.9% to +16.8% | 801 | 47 |
| Leaning bullish (+11 to +30) | +1.8% | -7.0% to +9.3% | 771 | 47 |
| Bullish (> +30) | -4.2% | -18.8% to +4.1% | 628 | 44 |
Methodology v1.3.1
2026-07-08 to 2026-07-16 · 7 starting sessionsPrimary horizon: 7 calendar days
7 starting sessions with completed windows · 469 ticker-session observationsMean rank correlation between score and later move: −0.06 (median −0.08) across 7 starting sessions.
95% interval by block length — sensitivity, no length preferred
- 12-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 36 calendar days of starting sessions, has 9
- 18-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 54 calendar days of starting sessions, has 9
- 24-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 72 calendar days of starting sessions, has 9
- Bearish (< −30)not shown54 ticker-session observations across 7 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10
- Leaning bearish (−30 to −11)not shown109 ticker-session observations across 7 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10
- Neutral (−10 to +10)not shown133 ticker-session observations across 7 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10
- Leaning bullish (+11 to +30)not shown111 ticker-session observations across 7 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10
- Bullish (> +30)not shown62 ticker-session observations across 5 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10
| Score band at snapshot | Median move | Middle 50% of outcomes | Ticker-sessions | Starting sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish (< −30) | 54 ticker-session observations across 7 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10 | |||
| Leaning bearish (−30 to −11) | 109 ticker-session observations across 7 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10 | |||
| Neutral (−10 to +10) | 133 ticker-session observations across 7 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10 | |||
| Leaning bullish (+11 to +30) | 111 ticker-session observations across 7 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10 | |||
| Bullish (> +30) | 62 ticker-session observations across 5 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10 | |||
Secondary horizon: 30 calendar days
7 starting sessions with completed windows · 469 ticker-session observationsMean rank correlation between score and later move: −0.17 (median −0.15) across 7 starting sessions.
95% interval by block length — sensitivity, no length preferred
- 35-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 105 calendar days of starting sessions, has 9
- 45-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 135 calendar days of starting sessions, has 9
- 60-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 180 calendar days of starting sessions, has 9
- Bearish (< −30)not shown54 ticker-session observations across 7 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10
- Leaning bearish (−30 to −11)not shown109 ticker-session observations across 7 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10
- Neutral (−10 to +10)not shown133 ticker-session observations across 7 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10
- Leaning bullish (+11 to +30)not shown111 ticker-session observations across 7 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10
- Bullish (> +30)not shown62 ticker-session observations across 5 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10
| Score band at snapshot | Median move | Middle 50% of outcomes | Ticker-sessions | Starting sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish (< −30) | 54 ticker-session observations across 7 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10 | |||
| Leaning bearish (−30 to −11) | 109 ticker-session observations across 7 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10 | |||
| Neutral (−10 to +10) | 133 ticker-session observations across 7 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10 | |||
| Leaning bullish (+11 to +30) | 111 ticker-session observations across 7 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10 | |||
| Bullish (> +30) | 62 ticker-session observations across 5 starting sessions — below OG's display minimum of 100 across 10 | |||
Methodology v1.3.0
2026-06-15 to 2026-07-07 · 15 starting sessionsPrimary horizon: 7 calendar days
15 starting sessions with completed windows · 1005 ticker-session observationsMean rank correlation between score and later move: +0.00 (median −0.01) across 15 starting sessions.
95% interval by block length — sensitivity, no length preferred
- 12-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 36 calendar days of starting sessions, has 23
- 18-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 54 calendar days of starting sessions, has 23
- 24-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 72 calendar days of starting sessions, has 23
- Bearish (< −30)-4.1%middle 50%: -11.2% to +4.9%252 ticker-sessions · 15 starting sessions
- Leaning bearish (−30 to −11)-5.8%middle 50%: -12.7% to -0.7%203 ticker-sessions · 15 starting sessions
- Neutral (−10 to +10)-4.6%middle 50%: -11.3% to +1.0%211 ticker-sessions · 15 starting sessions
- Leaning bullish (+11 to +30)-5.5%middle 50%: -11.9% to -0.9%145 ticker-sessions · 15 starting sessions
- Bullish (> +30)-4.3%middle 50%: -10.0% to +1.0%194 ticker-sessions · 14 starting sessions
| Score band at snapshot | Median move | Middle 50% of outcomes | Ticker-sessions | Starting sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish (< −30) | -4.1% | -11.2% to +4.9% | 252 | 15 |
| Leaning bearish (−30 to −11) | -5.8% | -12.7% to -0.7% | 203 | 15 |
| Neutral (−10 to +10) | -4.6% | -11.3% to +1.0% | 211 | 15 |
| Leaning bullish (+11 to +30) | -5.5% | -11.9% to -0.9% | 145 | 15 |
| Bullish (> +30) | -4.3% | -10.0% to +1.0% | 194 | 14 |
Secondary horizon: 30 calendar days
15 starting sessions with completed windows · 1005 ticker-session observationsMean rank correlation between score and later move: −0.17 (median −0.20) across 15 starting sessions.
95% interval by block length — sensitivity, no length preferred
- 35-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 105 calendar days of starting sessions, has 23
- 45-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 135 calendar days of starting sessions, has 23
- 60-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 180 calendar days of starting sessions, has 23
- Bearish (< −30)-9.6%middle 50%: -22.7% to +2.5%252 ticker-sessions · 15 starting sessions
- Leaning bearish (−30 to −11)-13.2%middle 50%: -24.3% to -2.5%203 ticker-sessions · 15 starting sessions
- Neutral (−10 to +10)-9.9%middle 50%: -22.6% to -0.5%211 ticker-sessions · 15 starting sessions
- Leaning bullish (+11 to +30)-15.7%middle 50%: -26.5% to -3.2%145 ticker-sessions · 15 starting sessions
- Bullish (> +30)-22.5%middle 50%: -31.8% to -8.5%194 ticker-sessions · 14 starting sessions
| Score band at snapshot | Median move | Middle 50% of outcomes | Ticker-sessions | Starting sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish (< −30) | -9.6% | -22.7% to +2.5% | 252 | 15 |
| Leaning bearish (−30 to −11) | -13.2% | -24.3% to -2.5% | 203 | 15 |
| Neutral (−10 to +10) | -9.9% | -22.6% to -0.5% | 211 | 15 |
| Leaning bullish (+11 to +30) | -15.7% | -26.5% to -3.2% | 145 | 15 |
| Bullish (> +30) | -22.5% | -31.8% to -8.5% | 194 | 14 |
Historical detail — not evidence for the current methodology
Legacy scores: methodology not recorded. These snapshots predate methodology-version stamping, so we cannot establish whether they used one consistent score definition or several. They describe whatever the score was at the time, which we cannot state, and they cannot validate the current methodology.
Legacy scores: methodology not recorded
2026-02-20 to 2026-06-12 · 67 starting sessionsPrimary horizon: 7 calendar days
67 starting sessions with completed windows · 3831 ticker-session observationsMean rank correlation between score and later move: +0.20 (median +0.19) across 67 starting sessions.
95% interval by block length — sensitivity, no length preferred
- 12-day blocks+0.11 to +0.30 (does not include zero)
- 18-day blocks+0.11 to +0.30 (does not include zero)
- 24-day blocks+0.10 to +0.30 (does not include zero)
- Bearish (< −30)-2.2%middle 50%: -10.1% to +5.2%770 ticker-sessions · 60 starting sessions
- Leaning bearish (−30 to −11)-0.6%middle 50%: -7.6% to +8.0%781 ticker-sessions · 66 starting sessions
- Neutral (−10 to +10)+1.1%middle 50%: -4.4% to +9.6%887 ticker-sessions · 67 starting sessions
- Leaning bullish (+11 to +30)+0.8%middle 50%: -3.8% to +8.8%698 ticker-sessions · 61 starting sessions
- Bullish (> +30)+1.9%middle 50%: -3.6% to +8.3%695 ticker-sessions · 55 starting sessions
| Score band at snapshot | Median move | Middle 50% of outcomes | Ticker-sessions | Starting sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish (< −30) | -2.2% | -10.1% to +5.2% | 770 | 60 |
| Leaning bearish (−30 to −11) | -0.6% | -7.6% to +8.0% | 781 | 66 |
| Neutral (−10 to +10) | +1.1% | -4.4% to +9.6% | 887 | 67 |
| Leaning bullish (+11 to +30) | +0.8% | -3.8% to +8.8% | 698 | 61 |
| Bullish (> +30) | +1.9% | -3.6% to +8.3% | 695 | 55 |
Secondary horizon: 30 calendar days
67 starting sessions with completed windows · 3831 ticker-session observationsMean rank correlation between score and later move: +0.29 (median +0.30) across 67 starting sessions.
95% interval by block length — sensitivity, no length preferred
- 35-day blocks+0.24 to +0.41 (does not include zero)
- 45-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 135 calendar days of starting sessions, has 113
- 60-day blocksinsufficient history — needs 180 calendar days of starting sessions, has 113
- Bearish (< −30)-7.4%middle 50%: -22.3% to +10.5%770 ticker-sessions · 60 starting sessions
- Leaning bearish (−30 to −11)+0.0%middle 50%: -16.6% to +18.9%781 ticker-sessions · 66 starting sessions
- Neutral (−10 to +10)+5.6%middle 50%: -8.9% to +24.0%887 ticker-sessions · 67 starting sessions
- Leaning bullish (+11 to +30)+4.4%middle 50%: -9.5% to +22.8%698 ticker-sessions · 61 starting sessions
- Bullish (> +30)+6.1%middle 50%: -8.3% to +21.6%695 ticker-sessions · 55 starting sessions
| Score band at snapshot | Median move | Middle 50% of outcomes | Ticker-sessions | Starting sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish (< −30) | -7.4% | -22.3% to +10.5% | 770 | 60 |
| Leaning bearish (−30 to −11) | +0.0% | -16.6% to +18.9% | 781 | 66 |
| Neutral (−10 to +10) | +5.6% | -8.9% to +24.0% | 887 | 67 |
| Leaning bullish (+11 to +30) | +4.4% | -9.5% to +22.8% | 698 | 61 |
| Bullish (> +30) | +6.1% | -8.3% to +21.6% | 695 | 55 |
Mixed methodologies: historical aggregate. Every starting session above combined, across all recorded and unrecorded methodology versions. It is the longest series available and the least attributable: it does not describe any single version of the score, and is kept out of the results above for that reason.
Primary horizon: 7 calendar days
156 starting sessions with completed windows · 9910 ticker-session observations- Bearish (< −30)-2.2%middle 50%: -10.5% to +6.0%1733 ticker-sessions · 147 starting sessions
- Leaning bearish (−30 to −11)-1.5%middle 50%: -8.2% to +6.9%2027 ticker-sessions · 154 starting sessions
- Neutral (−10 to +10)-0.2%middle 50%: -6.6% to +5.8%2410 ticker-sessions · 156 starting sessions
- Leaning bullish (+11 to +30)-0.4%middle 50%: -6.0% to +5.1%2024 ticker-sessions · 149 starting sessions
- Bullish (> +30)-1.4%middle 50%: -8.7% to +4.4%1716 ticker-sessions · 137 starting sessions
| Score band at snapshot | Median move | Middle 50% of outcomes | Ticker-sessions | Starting sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish (< −30) | -2.2% | -10.5% to +6.0% | 1733 | 147 |
| Leaning bearish (−30 to −11) | -1.5% | -8.2% to +6.9% | 2027 | 154 |
| Neutral (−10 to +10) | -0.2% | -6.6% to +5.8% | 2410 | 156 |
| Leaning bullish (+11 to +30) | -0.4% | -6.0% to +5.1% | 2024 | 149 |
| Bullish (> +30) | -1.4% | -8.7% to +4.4% | 1716 | 137 |
Secondary horizon: 30 calendar days
139 starting sessions with completed windows · 8737 ticker-session observations- Bearish (< −30)-3.5%middle 50%: -19.5% to +10.9%1493 ticker-sessions · 130 starting sessions
- Leaning bearish (−30 to −11)-0.7%middle 50%: -15.2% to +14.7%1738 ticker-sessions · 137 starting sessions
- Neutral (−10 to +10)+2.2%middle 50%: -10.3% to +16.6%2104 ticker-sessions · 139 starting sessions
- Leaning bullish (+11 to +30)+0.4%middle 50%: -11.2% to +11.4%1778 ticker-sessions · 133 starting sessions
- Bullish (> +30)-3.4%middle 50%: -18.6% to +9.7%1624 ticker-sessions · 121 starting sessions
| Score band at snapshot | Median move | Middle 50% of outcomes | Ticker-sessions | Starting sessions |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bearish (< −30) | -3.5% | -19.5% to +10.9% | 1493 | 130 |
| Leaning bearish (−30 to −11) | -0.7% | -15.2% to +14.7% | 1738 | 137 |
| Neutral (−10 to +10) | +2.2% | -10.3% to +16.6% | 2104 | 139 |
| Leaning bullish (+11 to +30) | +0.4% | -11.2% to +11.4% | 1778 | 133 |
| Bullish (> +30) | -3.4% | -18.6% to +9.7% | 1624 | 121 |
Method: analysis protocol v2. A ticker enters a band by its archived score. Where two archived snapshots map to the same starting session, only the later one is used (6 snapshots set aside this way; the archive itself is unchanged). Prices: regular-session opens and closes from one raw daily series per ticker (Yahoo Finance); a close never stands in for a missing open. Session calendar: supported from 2026-01-01 to 2026-12-31, from the published exchange schedules; a window needing a date outside that range is reported as unavailable, never estimated.
Sample: the 71 tickers currently in the universe — names that have since left it are excluded (8 retired symbols: AI, BITF, CRM, DJT, GME, PATH, PLTR, XYZ), while a renamed ticker keeps its earlier history under the current symbol (ANY→DRK, LMFA→PWCM), counted once. Retired-ticker comparison (partial): BITF is unavailable (provider returned HTTP 404), so the measured differences cover 7 of 8 retired symbols. They are partial diagnostic results, not the effect of removing all retired tickers — largest measured differences (partial): legacy scores: methodology not recorded, 30-day bearish −0.76 pp; legacy scores: methodology not recorded, 30-day neutral +0.70 pp.
Figures are withheld per band wherever a sample falls under OG's minimum display requirement of 100 ticker-session observations across 10 starting sessions — a disclosure policy, not a statistically established validation threshold. Intervals come from a moving-block bootstrap that resamples starting sessions in contiguous blocks — complete calendar windows that never wrap from the end of a period back to its start. With 10,000 resamples and a fixed seed, the same data and settings always give the same interval. Sessions near the start and end of a period carry less weight than those in the middle, and bounds are simulation estimates (about ±0.002 in the largest recorded cohort). An interval that includes zero means these data cannot distinguish the association from none, and similar intervals across block lengths do not show that the intervals are calibrated. Analysis cutoff 2026-10-27; the dashboard was running scoring v1.5.0 when this was computed. See the methodology changelog.